Antonin Scalia, U.S. Supreme Court justice, dead at 79

[james_davis_nicoll]

Antonin Scalia, U.S. Supreme Court justice, dead at 79

Comments

[mmcirvin.livejournal.com]

I think it's likely that as long as the Senate is Republican-controlled, they will simply decide to confirm nobody appointed by a Democrat from now on, and it'll become the new normal that the Senate never confirms SCOTUS appointees from a President of the opposing party.

Just as it became the new normal that you need 60 votes to pass legislation.

I suppose they could even decide that they'll blanket-filibuster all nominees from the opposing party, meaning that the President would always need a 60-vote supermajority to appoint a Justice. But I suspect that instead the filibuster for Supreme Court nominees is going to go away the moment the President and Senate majority are of the same party. It's already gone for other political appointees (in fact, I think McConnell is doing this in part as payback for that).

[sean o'hara (from livejournal.com)]

If the Dems win the White House, I don't see Republicans holding control of the Senate. If they have the Vice President, the Dems only need to pick up four seats to take control (five if Sanders wins), which is entirely doable in a Presidential year.

But even if the Republicans retain control of the Senate while losing the White House, I don't think the Justices would sit quietly if half the Court goes empty. That would nearly double the remaining Justices' workload as they have to write more opinions and supervise more Circuit Courts. No matter how ideological they are (and remember, most of them try not to be openly), at some point they'll start demanding that Congress do its duty and confirm a qualified candidate.

[tzaddi-93.livejournal.com]

Also, with any case that stalls at 4-4, the lower court decision stands without setting precedent. About 2/3 of the country is governed by courts that are majority Democrats, so policy-wise, it is bad for the GOP to leave a vacancy for too long. There are several cases pending right now where the GOP was counting on the Supreme Court to overturn lower court rulings.

[sean o'hara (from livejournal.com)]

But if Breyer or Ginsburg retire, the court goes to three liberals, three conservatives, and Kennedy as a swing vote, which is functionally the same as what it was last week. If Ginsburg and Breyer retire, it becomes three conservatives, two liberals and Kennedy occasionally creating a tie. And if Ginsburg, Breyer and Kennedy all retire, it goes to a straight 3/2 conservative majority.