As pointed out in email

[james_davis_nicoll]

India’s declining fertility rate, now only slightly higher than that of the United States, is part of a global trend of lower population growth. Yet the media and many educated Americans have entirely missed this major development, instead sticking to erroneous perceptions about inexorable global population growth that continue to fuel panicked rhetoric about everything from environmental degradation and immigration to food and resource scarcity.

In a recent exercise, most of my students believed that India’s total fertility rate (TFR) was twice that of the United States. Many of my colleagues believed the same. In actuality, it is only 2.5, barely above the estimated U.S. rate of 2.1 in 2011, and essentially the replacement level.

Comments

[mishalak.livejournal.com]

As long as "fugitive methane emissions" are less than 3% of the total gas consumed then it still works out to be better than coal in terms of climate change potential. It is an issue that will need to be investigated and being better than coal is damning with faint praise, but still better.

I also think that the eventual drop in CO2 will be largely be about luck rather than policy. It will be about policy to the extent that there is a lot of research being done about efficiency and reducing the cost of lower carbon energy sources. However, a lot of it will be due to changes in the tastes of people that are underway. Instead of being overjoyed about a big new car many people now choose to spend money on a great computer. People in America are moving back to urban cores and choosing not to use cars for reasons other than being green. Plus there are the true believers who will keep looking for ways to make low carbon to work better than high carbon choices.

Methane/natural gas is not the only answer or one that will work forever, but right now it is part of reducing harm. Natural gas prices will eventually rise due to supply and at that point I think that even lower carbon choices will be more attractive than returning to coal or oil.