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james_davis_nicollThere are 308 seats in Parliament. Each seat holds one vote. 155 votes make a majority. If a party has 155 or more seats, then they can pass bills pretty much whenever they like [1]. Losing a vote in Parliament is the fast track to an election (Terms in Canada are not of fixed length). This is the current breakdown of seats in Canada.
Liberals: 131
Conservatives: 99
BQ:54
NDP: 19
IND: 3
The problem should be obvious.
Liberals are centrists, the Conservatives are a coalition frankensteined together from the Reform Party, still trying to find ways to appeal to Ontario, and some of the remains of the former Progressive Conservative Party, the Bloc want subsidised independence for Quebec [2], the NDP are socialists and the Independents are all people who were associated with parties but who lost that connection somehow [3].
The Conservatives were recently formed by two separate betrayals in short order. Since the main policy that they can all agree on is that they desperately want to displace the Liberals (thus the various deals with the devil that went into assembling the CPC), forming a coalition with the Liberals isn't going to happen.
The NDP have in the past formed such coalitions but right now there's no point. 131 + 19 = 150, after all. Even 131 + 19 + 3 doesn't work, two votes short.
In fact, basic math is the problem. The only combinations that add up to 155+ seats involve deals between parties for whom such a deal is unthinkable. The CPC isn't going to ally with the Liberals. The Liberals are not going to ally with the Bloc. Elements of the CPC used to be allied with the Bloc (two flavours of traitors cooperating for the moment) but the divorce was bitter -- it killed the Progressive Conservatives -- and 99 + 54 is 2 votes short of a majority. 99 + 54 + 3 works but it would be political suicide for the 2 former Liberals.
99 + 54 + 19 does work but that's not a deal the NDP would cut. For all their faults, they are not racists, whereas both the CPC and the BQ include in their tents ethnic xenophobes (The CPC favours hating people for what they are and the BQ hating people for what they are not).
The critical factor in when the next election will be is if the CPC thinks forcing an election at the height of a nasty scandal involving the Liberals will gain more votes from the scandal than it will lose because the voters did not want another election just yet.
Tick tick tick
1: In actual fact, when parties are close to the 155 limit they are vulnerable, since the defection of a few backbenchers can cost them the vote. The backbenches are where the party lunatics are hidden, sometimes poorly.
2: Part of a grand tradition in Canada, where some part of the nation always thinks they deserve a better deal.
3: If I recall correctly, the ex-Reformer got hosed out of his candidacy by another man exploiting a loophole in the rules (A guy who went on to put badly photoshopped photos of him and people he felt he should have met on his website). One of the Liberals was ejected because she has political tourette's syndrome. The other Liberal left, if I recall correctly, because of the ongoing sponsorship scandal.
Liberals: 131
Conservatives: 99
BQ:54
NDP: 19
IND: 3
The problem should be obvious.
Liberals are centrists, the Conservatives are a coalition frankensteined together from the Reform Party, still trying to find ways to appeal to Ontario, and some of the remains of the former Progressive Conservative Party, the Bloc want subsidised independence for Quebec [2], the NDP are socialists and the Independents are all people who were associated with parties but who lost that connection somehow [3].
The Conservatives were recently formed by two separate betrayals in short order. Since the main policy that they can all agree on is that they desperately want to displace the Liberals (thus the various deals with the devil that went into assembling the CPC), forming a coalition with the Liberals isn't going to happen.
The NDP have in the past formed such coalitions but right now there's no point. 131 + 19 = 150, after all. Even 131 + 19 + 3 doesn't work, two votes short.
In fact, basic math is the problem. The only combinations that add up to 155+ seats involve deals between parties for whom such a deal is unthinkable. The CPC isn't going to ally with the Liberals. The Liberals are not going to ally with the Bloc. Elements of the CPC used to be allied with the Bloc (two flavours of traitors cooperating for the moment) but the divorce was bitter -- it killed the Progressive Conservatives -- and 99 + 54 is 2 votes short of a majority. 99 + 54 + 3 works but it would be political suicide for the 2 former Liberals.
99 + 54 + 19 does work but that's not a deal the NDP would cut. For all their faults, they are not racists, whereas both the CPC and the BQ include in their tents ethnic xenophobes (The CPC favours hating people for what they are and the BQ hating people for what they are not).
The critical factor in when the next election will be is if the CPC thinks forcing an election at the height of a nasty scandal involving the Liberals will gain more votes from the scandal than it will lose because the voters did not want another election just yet.
Tick tick tick
1: In actual fact, when parties are close to the 155 limit they are vulnerable, since the defection of a few backbenchers can cost them the vote. The backbenches are where the party lunatics are hidden, sometimes poorly.
2: Part of a grand tradition in Canada, where some part of the nation always thinks they deserve a better deal.
3: If I recall correctly, the ex-Reformer got hosed out of his candidacy by another man exploiting a loophole in the rules (A guy who went on to put badly photoshopped photos of him and people he felt he should have met on his website). One of the Liberals was ejected because she has political tourette's syndrome. The other Liberal left, if I recall correctly, because of the ongoing sponsorship scandal.
