I've been thinking for a while that the contest this election isn't in swaying opinion, it's in getting people to show up at the polls. Disaffection abounds.
Nate Silver has some interesting analysis of this too concluding pretty much the same things with a worse set of data for Romney that there are now a few like for like polls out which show Obama gaining consolidation.
It'll be interesting to see if Friday's job report impacts the bounce that's being seen in Rasmussen, Ipsos and Gallup.
The other major polls are starting to show the same thing. And apparently the Republicans are conceding that they're down in Ohio, which is pretty much a must-win state for them.
The latest rumor is that, barring something totally unforeseen, they can't catch Obama in the near term and so they're pinning their hopes on the first debate in October to turn things around. Which, given the two people involved are Mitt "Can't Open His Mouth Lately Without Saying Something Stupid" and Barack Obama, seems to be hoping for a miracle.
'They' also say, though you're not seeing it many places, that the goppers actually experienced a negative impact from their Con -- i.e. they lost support.
I didn't see either the Gallup report or this one in the primary media -- but I don't own a television and I read the papers online.
no subject
Date: 2012-09-08 06:03 pm (UTC)The interesting question will be turnout on each side.
no subject
Date: 2012-09-08 06:47 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2012-09-08 06:48 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2012-09-08 06:44 pm (UTC)It'll be interesting to see if Friday's job report impacts the bounce that's being seen in Rasmussen, Ipsos and Gallup.
no subject
Date: 2012-09-08 07:53 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2012-09-08 11:08 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2012-09-08 11:19 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2012-09-09 06:36 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2012-09-08 08:23 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2012-09-08 11:12 pm (UTC)Love, C.
no subject
Date: 2012-09-09 08:35 pm (UTC)The latest rumor is that, barring something totally unforeseen, they can't catch Obama in the near term and so they're pinning their hopes on the first debate in October to turn things around. Which, given the two people involved are Mitt "Can't Open His Mouth Lately Without Saying Something Stupid" and Barack Obama, seems to be hoping for a miracle.
no subject
Date: 2012-09-09 09:45 pm (UTC)I didn't see either the Gallup report or this one in the primary media -- but I don't own a television and I read the papers online.
Love, C.
no subject
Date: 2012-09-09 04:59 am (UTC)