Trivia Questions

[james_davis_nicoll]

What's the average lifespan for Presidents, excluding those who died or were killed in office, as compared to the lifespans of their contemporaries? Do they live longer or does the stress of the job wear them down?

What's the fewest number of former Presidents that have been alive at a given time? If Ford [1] doesn't make it, that leaves us with, hrm, Clinton, Bush and Carter, right?

ObCanCon: Former PMs who could be said to be alive include Chretien, Campbell, Mulroney, Turner and quite possibly Paul Martin. At 76, Turner is the oldest former PM.

1: Rather interestingly for a man who once had his finger on the Button, according to Herman Kahn Ford was one of two people Kahn met in the 1960s who could not grasp the idea of a limited response in the context of nuclear weapons.

Comments

[woodardp.livejournal.com]

From January 22, 1973-April 21, 1974 there were no living US former Presidents. I'm sure there have been other times with no living presidents as well. Heck, Washington died during Adams' term, so there is another one.

[nwhyte]

I have actually written a web page answering some of those questions here.

Presidents on average take up office aged 55, serve until they are 60 and live to 69. Vice-Presidents, interestingly, on average are 54 on taking up office, 58 when they leave office and live to 71.

[james-nicoll.livejournal.com]

Life expectancies used to be lower, though, and if Presidental lifespans reflect that [1], would the shorter lives of the 19th century POTUSes drag the average down? The life expectancy of a person in the UK in 1800 was about 36 years at birth [2]. Assuming the US value was similar for no particular reason aside from both having a U in their name, when Millard Fillmore died at age 74, he had exceeded the life expectancy for Americans born in 1800 by almost 40 years.

1: But perhaps Presidents come from backgrounds with better nutrition and lower infection rates.

2: Of course, child mortality stats were horrendous back then. Maybe I should look at life expectancy for people who survive childhood.

[woodardp.livejournal.com]

Instead of looking at expected lifespan at birth vs. average lifespan of POTUSes, how about expected lifespan of people who had reached the age of the average POTUS take-up age, given above as 55 by nhw. I think this is important, since (obvious statistic alert!) no POTUS has ever died in infancy, childhood or young adulthood.

[james-nicoll.livejournal.com]

Well, except in ALL STAR SQUADRON.

What I should do is look up the life expectancy for contemporaries of each POTUS at the age each POTUS became POTUS. More work for me but more accurate.

[debgeisler.livejournal.com]

Interestingly enough, if you omit the presidents who died in office (which speaks to James's question about the stresses of the job, etc.), the "average" life span is 77+.

Of the 9 presidents who died in office, three of them (Garfield, McKinley and Harding) were from my home state of Ohio. I do not suspect a conspiracy. :-)

[james-nicoll.livejournal.com]

I am not entirely certain I would put the cause of death for Kennedy, McKinley, Garfield and Lincoln as "stress", exactly. Although I am the experience that led to their exiting office must have been stressful.

William Henry Harrison couldn't have been unduly stressed by the job, since he caught the disease that led to his death within a month of taking office. Less stress and more a crying need for a good sweater-vest.

[debgeisler.livejournal.com]

Sorry -- I wasn't clear. It was my intention that the deaths in office didn't count, since your initial question seemed to be asking about how long presidents lived after they were in office (and if the stresses of the office led to early deaths).

Kennedy, McKinley, Garfield & Lincoln died of "stress" in the same way that all death comes down to heart failure. :-)

[jkling.livejournal.com]

I think you'd be hard-pressed to come to a meaningful conclusion, though the thesis is interesting. The trouble is that if presidents have different lifespans than their contemporaries, there are too many confounding factors -- first and foresmost social status, which means better healthcare. They're also inherently ambitious and (I suspect) more likely to take care of themselves, get regular exercise, etc. Putting differences down to the stress of office would be overly simplistic, I think.

[james-nicoll.livejournal.com]

To be honest, what made me wonder about how stressful high office is was a single data point I noticed in the 1980s, that Deputy PM Erik Nielsen looked like hell compared to his brother Leslie. Of course, Leslie was (and is) an actor and so presumably had some professional incentive to take care of his looks, while Canadians do not seem to put a particularly high value in attractive politicians, particularly the more powerful ones.

[mayakda.livejournal.com]

Interesting. Too bad you can't do a study on Presidents with identical twins.
Coincidentally, I was just wondering yesterday if it would make sense to raise the minimum age for presidency, given the longer average lifespans.

[james-nicoll.livejournal.com]

Did age give Reagan a particular edge over Clinton, doing the jobwise?

[mayakda.livejournal.com]

ROFL! Good point.
I think I was just getting annoyed at all these ex-presidents lolly-gagging around.

[joenotcharles.livejournal.com]

You could compare presidents to presidential candidates who didn't win, since they'd tend to be from similar backgrounds. (However, that doesn't tell you anything about the stress of politics in general, just about the President vs. lesser politicians.)

[debgeisler.livejournal.com]

The U.S. presidential "before and after" pictures have always been a bit staggering. Seeing how 4 years can age someone...

[mmcirvin.livejournal.com]

A lot of that probably is the stress of the job, but I sometimes wonder how much of it is a deliberate change in the president's hair and makeup regimen, as the desired look changes from youthful vigor to elder statesmanship.

[eyelessgame.livejournal.com]

I suspect their guaranteed continuous access to top-tier health care would improve the life expectancy of recent expotusi compared with their contemporaries, and that this effect will be more pronounced in the 21st century.

LBJ

[(Anonymous)]

Johnson nearly died in the 1950s from a heart attack, but gave up
smoking and adopted a fairly strict diet. He had to convince the
public that he was a healthy man in order to be a viable candidate
for the presidency. He maintained this regimen throughout his
term as president, but gave it up immediately afterwards.

On the other hand he did pretty much set a record for male
longevity in his family, as heart problems carried most of
them off in their fifties or sixties (including, IIRC, his younger
brother).

William Hyde

[thespian.livejournal.com]

ObCanCon: Former PMs who could be said to be alive include Chretien, Campbell, Mulroney, Turner and quite possibly Paul Martin. At 76, Turner is the oldest former PM.

And Clark. Everyone forgets about poor Joe Clark.

[james-nicoll.livejournal.com]

[string of obscenities]

I actually checked to make sure Clark hadn't die and then forgot to include him. Yeah, if I included PMs who weren't even elected, Joe Who deserves to be on that list as well. In fact, scratch the qualifier: he was PM, he should have been on the list.

[lederhosen.livejournal.com]

ObAus: We've still got Keating, Hawke, Fraser, and Whitlam. Plus Holt, for exceedingly optimistic conspiracy theorists.

[lostwanderfound.livejournal.com]

Ever hear the one about the shark who was swimming down the coast in 1967 before he came to a screaming halt?

And about the wonderfully tasteful memorial down in Victoria?

[lederhosen.livejournal.com]

Ever hear the one about the shark who was swimming down the coast in 1967 before he came to a screaming halt?

I have now. Must inflict that on others.

I've swum at the HHSC... even by Australian standards, that always seemed like an unusually tasteless idea for a memorial :-)

[brett-dunbar.livejournal.com]

The most former British PMs (counting all ex-PMs even if serving again) at one time is six on three occasions:

1 November 1834-12 January 1835

Melbourne's resignation to W W Grenville's death

(Addington, W W Grenville, Goderich, Wellington, Grey, Melbourne)

Serving PMs

A gap, then Wellington from 17th November to 9th December, then Peel from 10th December

8 April 1835-15 February 1844

Peel's resignation to Addington's death

(Addington, Goderich, Wellington, Grey, Melbourne, Peel)

Serving PMs

Melbourne to 1st August 1841, a gap, then Peel from 30th August 1841

4 November 1924-15 February 1928

Ramsey MacDonald's resignation to Asquith's death

(Rosebery, Balfour, Asquith, Lloyd George, Baldwin, Ramsey MacDonald)

Serving PM

Baldwin for whole period

There has only been one period since 1742 when there has been no living ex-PMs:

18th March 1745-10th February 1746

Walpole's death to Pelham's resignation