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...actually, over civilizational timescales -- thousands to tens of thousands of years -- we can be very very very close to certain there are no false negatives.

Most asteroid orbits are not chaotic over those time scales. And the odds of your average asteroid suddenly finding the delta-vee to dramatically move its orbit? comparable to the Moon suddenly jumping out of the Earth's orbit. viz., theoretically possible, but don't hold your breath.

Doug M.

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james_davis_nicoll

James Nicoll Reviews

June 2025

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