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Apr. 7th, 2013
There's a later version of this paper but you have to subscribe to Sage to see it.
Abstract: The UN data (1950-2010) and projections (both medium and low-fertility variants for 2015-2040) show that fertility rates are already below replacement level in all continents except Africa. In this paper we develop a simple new approach for population projections based on a Improved Rate Equations (IRE) model. Population projections under the (1) Malthusian assumption, (2) an (IRE) model fitting and
extrapolating from actual UN population data up to 2040, and (3) UN projections (low-fertility variant), are compared. The model fits quite well actual data and suggests a world population decline in the 21
st Century. The economic, social and political consequences of this new and global circumstance would be far reaching.
A Logic Named Joe
Set in a future where everyone owns a Logic, a networked computer that can do everything in the way of information management from communications to book-keeping, this looks at what happens the day the censor circuits break down, or rather what happens to the poor sap in charge of fixing the situation. Re-used in X Minus One because it's a classic and more visionary than people in either 1950 or 1956 would have understood.
Interesting that it's his wife who has the key insight and not in the usual "your ditzy ravings have inspired my man-brain to thinkism!'
The Korean War continues to rage in the background; the news broadcasts are included as part of the file.
One detail Leinster got wrong is that he expected a few large computers, to which the many household Logics connect. It seems to me that cloud computing could lend itself to a similar approach; wouldn't things be secure if everyone's data was stored in vast server farms in various DHS-run locations?
Set in a future where everyone owns a Logic, a networked computer that can do everything in the way of information management from communications to book-keeping, this looks at what happens the day the censor circuits break down, or rather what happens to the poor sap in charge of fixing the situation. Re-used in X Minus One because it's a classic and more visionary than people in either 1950 or 1956 would have understood.
Interesting that it's his wife who has the key insight and not in the usual "your ditzy ravings have inspired my man-brain to thinkism!'
The Korean War continues to rage in the background; the news broadcasts are included as part of the file.
One detail Leinster got wrong is that he expected a few large computers, to which the many household Logics connect. It seems to me that cloud computing could lend itself to a similar approach; wouldn't things be secure if everyone's data was stored in vast server farms in various DHS-run locations?
Mars is Heaven
The first mission to Mars encounters strangely familiar-looking Martians...
Assuming the Martian stories are in the same continuity, one can argue the Martians are just being prudent.
This was reused for X Minus One and for some reason I remembered the humans as being a lot slower on the uptake than they were.
The first mission to Mars encounters strangely familiar-looking Martians...
Assuming the Martian stories are in the same continuity, one can argue the Martians are just being prudent.
This was reused for X Minus One and for some reason I remembered the humans as being a lot slower on the uptake than they were.
This seems very weak on specifics
Apr. 7th, 2013 09:02 pmAnd the claim about 30 to 90 days trips seems very familiar.
University of Washington researchers and scientists at a Redmond-based space-propulsion company are currently building components of a fusion-powered rocket, which could enable astronauts to travel to Earth’s neighboring planet Mars within weeks instead of months, at speeds considerably faster than feasible until now. The current travel speeds using fuel rockets make Mars travel a journey of about four years but the new fusion technology being tested by researchers at the University of Washington promises that in 30 to 90 days.