james_davis_nicoll (![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png)
james_davis_nicoll) wrote2005-04-23 09:48 am
james_davis_nicoll) wrote2005-04-23 09:48 am
Numbers -or- Why We Might Have An Election At Any Moment
There are 308 seats in Parliament. Each seat holds one vote. 155 votes make a majority. If a party has 155 or more seats, then they can pass bills pretty much whenever they like [1]. Losing a vote in Parliament is the fast track to an election (Terms in Canada are not of fixed length). This is the current breakdown of seats in Canada.
Liberals: 131
Conservatives: 99
BQ:54
NDP: 19
IND: 3
The problem should be obvious.
Liberals are centrists, the Conservatives are a coalition frankensteined together from the Reform Party, still trying to find ways to appeal to Ontario, and some of the remains of the former Progressive Conservative Party, the Bloc want subsidised independence for Quebec [2], the NDP are socialists and the Independents are all people who were associated with parties but who lost that connection somehow [3].
The Conservatives were recently formed by two separate betrayals in short order. Since the main policy that they can all agree on is that they desperately want to displace the Liberals (thus the various deals with the devil that went into assembling the CPC), forming a coalition with the Liberals isn't going to happen.
The NDP have in the past formed such coalitions but right now there's no point. 131 + 19 = 150, after all. Even 131 + 19 + 3 doesn't work, two votes short.
In fact, basic math is the problem. The only combinations that add up to 155+ seats involve deals between parties for whom such a deal is unthinkable. The CPC isn't going to ally with the Liberals. The Liberals are not going to ally with the Bloc. Elements of the CPC used to be allied with the Bloc (two flavours of traitors cooperating for the moment) but the divorce was bitter -- it killed the Progressive Conservatives -- and 99 + 54 is 2 votes short of a majority. 99 + 54 + 3 works but it would be political suicide for the 2 former Liberals.
99 + 54 + 19 does work but that's not a deal the NDP would cut. For all their faults, they are not racists, whereas both the CPC and the BQ include in their tents ethnic xenophobes (The CPC favours hating people for what they are and the BQ hating people for what they are not).
The critical factor in when the next election will be is if the CPC thinks forcing an election at the height of a nasty scandal involving the Liberals will gain more votes from the scandal than it will lose because the voters did not want another election just yet.
Tick tick tick
1: In actual fact, when parties are close to the 155 limit they are vulnerable, since the defection of a few backbenchers can cost them the vote. The backbenches are where the party lunatics are hidden, sometimes poorly.
2: Part of a grand tradition in Canada, where some part of the nation always thinks they deserve a better deal.
3: If I recall correctly, the ex-Reformer got hosed out of his candidacy by another man exploiting a loophole in the rules (A guy who went on to put badly photoshopped photos of him and people he felt he should have met on his website). One of the Liberals was ejected because she has political tourette's syndrome. The other Liberal left, if I recall correctly, because of the ongoing sponsorship scandal.
Liberals: 131
Conservatives: 99
BQ:54
NDP: 19
IND: 3
The problem should be obvious.
Liberals are centrists, the Conservatives are a coalition frankensteined together from the Reform Party, still trying to find ways to appeal to Ontario, and some of the remains of the former Progressive Conservative Party, the Bloc want subsidised independence for Quebec [2], the NDP are socialists and the Independents are all people who were associated with parties but who lost that connection somehow [3].
The Conservatives were recently formed by two separate betrayals in short order. Since the main policy that they can all agree on is that they desperately want to displace the Liberals (thus the various deals with the devil that went into assembling the CPC), forming a coalition with the Liberals isn't going to happen.
The NDP have in the past formed such coalitions but right now there's no point. 131 + 19 = 150, after all. Even 131 + 19 + 3 doesn't work, two votes short.
In fact, basic math is the problem. The only combinations that add up to 155+ seats involve deals between parties for whom such a deal is unthinkable. The CPC isn't going to ally with the Liberals. The Liberals are not going to ally with the Bloc. Elements of the CPC used to be allied with the Bloc (two flavours of traitors cooperating for the moment) but the divorce was bitter -- it killed the Progressive Conservatives -- and 99 + 54 is 2 votes short of a majority. 99 + 54 + 3 works but it would be political suicide for the 2 former Liberals.
99 + 54 + 19 does work but that's not a deal the NDP would cut. For all their faults, they are not racists, whereas both the CPC and the BQ include in their tents ethnic xenophobes (The CPC favours hating people for what they are and the BQ hating people for what they are not).
The critical factor in when the next election will be is if the CPC thinks forcing an election at the height of a nasty scandal involving the Liberals will gain more votes from the scandal than it will lose because the voters did not want another election just yet.
Tick tick tick
1: In actual fact, when parties are close to the 155 limit they are vulnerable, since the defection of a few backbenchers can cost them the vote. The backbenches are where the party lunatics are hidden, sometimes poorly.
2: Part of a grand tradition in Canada, where some part of the nation always thinks they deserve a better deal.
3: If I recall correctly, the ex-Reformer got hosed out of his candidacy by another man exploiting a loophole in the rules (A guy who went on to put badly photoshopped photos of him and people he felt he should have met on his website). One of the Liberals was ejected because she has political tourette's syndrome. The other Liberal left, if I recall correctly, because of the ongoing sponsorship scandal.
no subject
Poll after poll shows that the Canadians don't really want an election at this time -- before the Martin address, 76% were saying they wanted to wait until Gomery reported (CBC). From everything I've heard, that number has gone up since Martin's address the other night. Several times on a couple different channels, I've heard Harper referred to as 'election-hungry', and one person on CTV the other night made the comment that 'I'm a Tory, but Harper doesn't care what's best for the country - he just wants to be in charge.'
Therefore, the best chance is actually for them to find a couple of Tories who are willing to 'turn', and stay with Harper's *initial* promise, which was 'we won't force an election unless the Canadian people want it.' I don't think he would have said that if he'd *actually* realized that the Canadian people wouldn't want it, but he did say it, repeatedly, for several days. What's needed to be found are people who don't even have to say 'we support the liberals', but 'our leader made a promise, and we want him to stick to that promise.'
no subject
I don't like calling them Tories, btw. The real Federal Tories are gone. This is fake-Republicanism, just like the (It Defies) Common Sense Revolution was. _Real_ conservatism is about opposing all change regardless of merit while grovelling in a servile manner in front of the current Great Power. OK, and some stewardship issues as well but who ever listened to the Red Tories on a Federal level?
no subject
This is very unfair to Martin but during his "Please, pleeeeeaaase, let me stay PM a little while longer" TV spot, was anyone else reminded of Richard M. Nixon's hijacking of prime viewing time back during the Watergate Scandal. Less sweat, of course.
Re: please, set us on fire
Bitter? I'm not bitter. How could I be bitter at the next door neighbor living down to the very worst stereotypes of them? The monetary value of the lifestyle support the Repugs and their supporters are giving to Canadian humourists is not small.
My attitude towards the current state of affairs can be modelled by imagining that you have noticed the dogs that your next door neighbor keeps in the common yard between your two homes all seem to be foaming at the mouth, that you heard the back door to your house click shut behind you and that your spouse sold your pistol without consulting you because for some reason its presence in the house made your spouse nervous, even though the number of mishaps concerning it have been quite low, considering.
All I ask is a border that is defended (there may still be Fenians, after all) and a means to extert our will at range. Bitter doesn't enter into it.
no subject
It almost makes me wish my MP were Conservative instead of Liberal, as then I could have a little bit of influence by calling her constituency office and registering my desire to wait for Gomery before an election is called. Since she's a Liberal, however (and in cabinet), my opinion really doesn't matter.
no subject
Why is this bad? We want the CPC to enter the next election with as little public support as possible, yeah? Harper forcing an election that nobody wants seems like a damn fine first step.
I wonder if we can get Harper to make a speech denouncing the influence on Canadian politics of "Money and Ethnics"? That's always a crowd-pleaser.
no subject
Solid gold!