Ice doom of DOOM!

[james_davis_nicoll]

The previous ice age lasted some 110,000 years and ended about 11,000 years ago. In other words, some 4,000 generations of humans knew of nothing but harsh winds and eternal snows. The apparently "normal'' periods between ice ages, like the present one, have averaged between 8,000 and 12,000 years. In short, the next ice age is overdue. The key question is when it will come. Can space be colonised by a sufficiently large population so that, when the next ice age strikes, it will not threaten the survival of the race?

Comments

[bruce munro (from livejournal.com)]

Ah, the "it's snowing hard so there's no such thing as global warming" argument. Almost as good as the "if we evolved from apes, why are there still apes around?" argument.

"He has been called the "most erudite of columnists" and the ``Dean of British science writers.''"

By whom, exactly?

[movingfinger.livejournal.com]

I like "some 4,000 generations of humans knew of nothing but harsh winds and eternal snows," because it implies that my ancestors were so stupid and so sedentary they just sat there in the katabatic gale and bitched about the weather, instead of going someplace a bit warmer like all the other animals.

[glaurung-quena.livejournal.com]

Yeah, I was bemused by how he basically ignored how all but a handful of our ancestors were wisely living well south of the "harsh winds and eternal snows." We hear a lot about the ice-enduring mammoth hunters because they lived in Europe, and European anthropologists can be kind of self-centered. But for every ice age mammoth hunter, there were probably 10 or 20 ice age people living in nice balmy places like Africa, India, South Asia, and so on.

[scott-sanford.livejournal.com]

Admittedly, I know people like that.

"It's cold! It's cold and windy and cold and snowing and cold! It's always been cold!"
"Hm. Maybe we should go to that warm valley over--"
"It! Is! COLD!!!"

Wait, what?!?

[ed-rex.livejournal.com]

... because it implies that my ancestors were so stupid and so sedentary they just sat there in the katabatic gale and bitched about the weather, instead of going someplace a bit warmer like all the other animals.

Er, what about the Inuit, the Lapps, etc? Tongue only somewhat in cheek, are you calling them all "stupid" and, even, "sedentary"?

[(Anonymous)]

It’s a quote from by a profile in “The National Review”. So make of that what you will. The profile was written by a chap called George Gilder, of whom I was previously ignorant. But his cv is quite proud of his associations with Kissinger, Nixon, Romney Snr, and Reagan. So make of that what you will. His Wikipedia entry indicates he has some quirky ideas about women, non-whites and the poor too.

- matthew davis

[calcinations.livejournal.com]

THey are assuming there are still humans around in a hundred thousand years or so when the next ice age might arrive.

I'm British and never heard of Adrian Berry, but then since I was at uni I've not found general science writery people to be as much use as blogs and actual science papers and books.

Wait....
His second book was "Crossing the universe with black holes"!!! I have a copy of that. Let me check my librarything.
Publoished in 1977. Which leads to wikipedia. To complete the trifecta, he's apaprently the 4th Viscount Camrose!

Born in 1937, so basically he's gone emeritus, since he'll be 78 or so by now. That's me being charitable, it could be he's an anti-science fuckwit driven by narrow minded political ideals though.

[calcinations.livejournal.com]

Oh wait, he's on the GWPF advisory board. Definitely politically drive fuckwit then. (If you can get a Dr's note about his mental health I'll withdraw that allegation)

[mmcirvin.livejournal.com]

ah, good, that's TWO high-profile climate denialists who are viscounts.

[major-clanger.livejournal.com]

He was the Daily Torygraph's science writer for many years, and actually not too bad until he got the idea that being able to explain other people's science (which he was tolerable at) meant that he was qualified to come up with his own.

He also, as his SFE entry notes, wrote a couple of SF novels. I read Koyama's Diamond many years ago and several parts of it have stuck in my mind for their sheer awfulness of characterisation and prose style.

[magedragonfire.livejournal.com]

I think there has to be some kind of severe disconnect in this fellow's thinking to say, first, that global warming is a farce, and then go on to note that the next ice age is overdue, and not wonder anywhere along the line if perhaps the two are related somehow.

(Not being a climate scientist, I have no idea if they actually are, or if the foretold doom-y ice age is just taking its sweet time for other reasons, but it seems like the sort of thing that should be considered.)

[calcinations.livejournal.com]

The actual climate scientists, unlike those in the GWPF, reckoned that we should have been sliding into one that would be fully blown in 10k years. However with the amount of CO2 and other gases now in and expected to be in the atmosphere, that is now put off for many tens of thousands of years more, I can't recall exactly, but in the 50 to 100k years range.

[movingfinger.livejournal.com]

The belief that the next ice age is overdue was being taught in the '60s and early '70s, before the full extent of anthropogenic climate change was generally apparent.

Praise to the anthropocene?

[ed-rex.livejournal.com]

I'm no climate scientist either, but I remember reading something "recently" (I'm 51; recently has become a pretty elastic term, but I think it was written within the past 20 years) looked at the predictions of a renewed ice-age and wondered whether the agricultural revolution — with all its forest-chopping and farming — has forestalled it.

*sigh*

[redbird]

Yet another person who is conveniently ignoring the existence of Africa, then?

His argument also assumes that the conditions that obtained for 90% of the past 2 million years will destroy humanity if they come back, because what was survivable with Paleolithic tech will be fatal today.

Re: *sigh*

[violsva]

Yeah, I was thinking, even if he was right that 4000 generations of humans lived through harsh winds and eternal snows, wouldn't that mean there was no chance whatsoever that they would threaten our survival?

RE: *sigh*

[(Anonymous)]

But everything was better in the mythical past!

Re: *sigh*

[scott-sanford.livejournal.com]

I don't think he knows anyone who lives in Africa. And if he couldn't survive with a possum skin cape and a flint knife, how can anyone else?

Re: *sigh*

[ross-teneyck.livejournal.com]

I seem to recall a Spider Robinson story speculating that the sudden loss of the internet would destroy civilization and kill millions.

I don't doubt it would fairly dire. But "collapse of civilization" seems excessive. We struggled along without it within the living memory of people who are not in any way old fogies, because they're my age.

[tandw.livejournal.com]

...some 4,000 generations of humans knew of nothing but harsh winds and eternal snows.

One wonders what he thinks those hardy souls ate. Snow, perhaps?

[glaurung-quena.livejournal.com]

Organically grown, 100% snow-fed mammoths!

[elusis.livejournal.com]

I assume he thinks they just sat around feeling sorry for themselves.

[londonkds.livejournal.com]

I'm going to come right out and say it - the "4000 generations of humans" line is because he consciously or unconsciously considers that the only actual "humans" are the ones who come from a specific geographical region.

[violsva]

This seems all too likely.

[calcinations.livejournal.com]

And finally- I had a read of some of his articles on his website. I see them as very much of their time and culture, which means they look rather odd to more modern people. They are well enough written in a kind of overdone artsy sort of way, but it seems clear that he has never been immersed in the world of science and it's associated cultures the way you might expect. Rather he observes from the border, always trying to put the science into the sociocultural framework he is familiar with, with his Eton and Christ Church Oxford education. Hence of course he wrote for the Torygraph.
To a post-millenial I expect his writings look a bit like vapid witterings.