james_davis_nicoll (![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png)
james_davis_nicoll) wrote2006-01-21 06:03 pm
james_davis_nicoll) wrote2006-01-21 06:03 pm
More fodder
Nicked from the UN report, via a post of mine:
Three Earths in 2100:
While I freely admit that migration in the past has seen small groups provide disproportionate fractions of migrants and that population models are often incorrect, this seems to me to indicate that all other considerations being equal, the pasty white with the occasional visible minority in the background model used in a lot of SF set in near future interstellar settings is likely to be wildly incorrect.
Three Earths in 2100:
Growth Scenario
Region Low Medium High
Africa 27.5% 24.9% 23.1%
Asia 52.1 55.4 57.5
Latin America
and Caribbean 7.4 8.1 8.4
North America 5.8 5.2 5.0
Europe 6.6 5.9 5.6
Oceana 0.6 0.5 0.5
Population 5.5B 9.1B 14.0B
While I freely admit that migration in the past has seen small groups provide disproportionate fractions of migrants and that population models are often incorrect, this seems to me to indicate that all other considerations being equal, the pasty white with the occasional visible minority in the background model used in a lot of SF set in near future interstellar settings is likely to be wildly incorrect.
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