You know, given that the PC seem likely to win in the fall
Last poll I saw showed a statistical tie between the Libs and Cons, FYI.
-- Steve thinks that, with Ontario's notorious habit of electing governments from the federal opposition and Hudak's tone-deafness, that McGuinty may actually get the nod again.
Horwath is polling a very, very distant 3rd right now. (The two leads are tied at roughly 30%, she's about 11%, 14% undecided, the remainder were "no answer" or independants. Margin of error was about 3 points IIRC.) I suspect that the one term they had will haunt the NDP for a looooong time here in the province.
-- Steve's kinda hoping for a Lib win; the local candidate mentioned one of the office's contracts as an election plank, so even if personal inclinations didn't lean that way simple self-interest would prompt a bias their way.
Everyone in Ontario both remembers Bob Rae, and is not willing to be blinded by his tanking of the Federal Liberals into thinking that his party has changed.
We remember what the provincial NDP are and look like.
Hmmmm. The Ontario Demographic Factsheet is broken down in inconvenient ways for this:
The 0-14 year olds are about 16.5% but their total ignorance of the NDP back then is balanced by their inabiltiy to vote. The 15-24 year olds make up 13.6%; maybe too young to remember him even for the older ones and some of them can vote. The 25-44 yr olds make up 27.6%, can all vote and some will have been kids 16 years ago. Everyone else is old enough to remember them and can vote.
The terrifying legends of the Reign of Bob Rae and what happens when you let the NDP run the province have been passed down to the young in hushed whispers around campfires.
That's not a bad analogy. The only bigger bogeyman is Harris, and Rae *caused* Harris.
It helps that Rae's currently a federal Liberal, and, the Liberals being the party with the longest knives, every time Rae steps forward everything he did as Premier and everything bad that came about because the NDP fucked up the job so badly makes the rounds again.
And I'm kind of okay with that. Ontario should have *finished* Rae, permanently, but he's like some kind of malignant cockroach.
My first experience with provincial-level NDP came from growing up in Saskatchewan. You may well understand how I might therefore disagree with your assessment of the Ontario arm's present state based on a previous leader's handling of the job in this province.
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Last poll I saw showed a statistical tie between the Libs and Cons, FYI.
-- Steve thinks that, with Ontario's notorious habit of electing governments from the federal opposition and Hudak's tone-deafness, that McGuinty may actually get the nod again.
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-- Steve's kinda hoping for a Lib win; the local candidate mentioned one of the office's contracts as an election plank, so even if personal inclinations didn't lean that way simple self-interest would prompt a bias their way.
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We remember what the provincial NDP are and look like.
Fuck THAT.
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The 0-14 year olds are about 16.5% but their total ignorance of the NDP back then is balanced by their inabiltiy to vote. The 15-24 year olds make up 13.6%; maybe too young to remember him even for the older ones and some of them can vote. The 25-44 yr olds make up 27.6%, can all vote and some will have been kids 16 years ago. Everyone else is old enough to remember them and can vote.
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It helps that Rae's currently a federal Liberal, and, the Liberals being the party with the longest knives, every time Rae steps forward everything he did as Premier and everything bad that came about because the NDP fucked up the job so badly makes the rounds again.
And I'm kind of okay with that. Ontario should have *finished* Rae, permanently, but he's like some kind of malignant cockroach.
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All the polls I've seen are depressing (and show an NDP bounce, not that I'd care for one since I really like McGuinty):
http://threehundredeight.blogspot.com/2011/08/liberals-up-three-seats-in-ontario.html
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-- Steve hates it when his google-fu punks out like that.
PS: I got badly burned by 308's recent federal coverage, and no longer hold that model in quite so much awe as I once did.
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http://toronto.ctv.ca/servlet/an/local/CTVNews/20110815/ontario-election-nanos-poll-110816/20110816?hub=TorontoNewHome