More Words, Deeper Hole

I would very much prefer it if those models are correct.

Even assuming they're perfectly correct my worry isn't the average. It's the increase in the likelihood of a widespread severe heat event.

Temperature thresholds and crop production: a review, at
http://www.locean-ipsl.upmc.fr/~ESCAPE/luo2011.climaticchange.pdf

is a summary article; it is in accord with my recollection that you're just not going to get yield from a field crop (and yes, I didn't specify field crop! but three-fifths of food is rice and wheat and maize, and that's rather what I was thinking of) if it hits 45C for a day. I'd be very interested in _what_ you're growing in Southern New Mexico that copes with that kind of heat!

Pecans, arboriculture generally, given lots of water, I can see surviving better. But even there there's all sorts of issues with pollen and fruit setting and heat stress. (and cold stress. and just generally having the wrong cultivar for the weather you happen to get this year.)

What I'm seeing, in the middle of southern Ontario, meaning a wet, large-lake, mid-continent environment, is major crop losses; maple syrup, apples (both having years at ~one third regular yield), hay shortages, widespread stock reductions due to hay shortages, and near-total failure of maize crops and things like potatoes or mustard. Nothing dire; things move around, there's, in an ideal year, a large surplus so a non-ideal year isn't going to do anything but move food prices.

Convincing myself that will stay certainly so in what's a bad drought year next climate ratchet, I find very tough to do.