Survivorship Bias

Apr. 24th, 2017 01:26 pm
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meret118:

white-aster:

dieselpunkisdad:

I have posted about survivorship bias and how it affects your career choices: how a Hollywood actor giving the classic “follow your dreams and never give up” line is bad advice and is pure survivorship bias at work.

When I read up on the wikipedia page, I encountered an interesting story:

During WWII the US  Air Force wanted to minimize bomber losses to enemy fire. The Center for Naval Analyses ran a research on where bombers tend to get hit with the explicit aim of enforcing the parts of the airframe that is most likely to receive incoming fire. This is what they came up with:


image

So, they said: the red dots are where bombers are most likely to be hit, so put some more armor on those parts to make the bombers more resilient. That looked like a logical conclusion, until Abraham Wald - a mathematician - started asking questions: 

- how did you obtain that data?
- well, we looked at every bomber returning from a raid, marked the damages on the airframe on a sheet and collected the sheets from all allied air bases over months. What you see is the result of hundreds of those sheets.
- and your conclusion?
- well, the red dots are where the bombers were hit. So let’s enforce those parts because they are most exposed to enemy fire. 
- no. the red dots are where a bomber can take a hit and return. The bombers that took a hit to the ailerons, the engines or the cockpit never made it home. That’s why they are absent in your data. The blank spots are exactly where you have to enforce the airframe, so those bombers can return.

This is survivorship bias. You only see a subset of the outcomes. The ones that made it far enough to be visible. Look out for absence of data. Sometimes they tell a story of their own.

BTW: You can see the result of this research today. This is the exact reason the A-10 has the pilot sitting in a titanium armor bathtub and has it’s engines placed high and shielded.

If you want to think scientifically, ALWAYS ask what data was included in a conclusion. And ALWAYS ask what data was EXCLUDED when making a conclusion.

If they have excluded information because “it doesn’t exist” or “it was too hard to get” or “it was good data but was provided by people we don’t like”, then that is a BIG RED FLAG that the analysis was flawed.

Another example of this is originally doctor’s thought smoking protected people from developing dementia until someone pointed out it was because smokers didn’t usually live long enough to get the most common forms.

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loveyoursub:

emir-dynamite:

sharkchunks:

iandsharman:

notahoe:

my type of public transportation 

“Why were you late in today?”

“Oh, I got tied up on the subway…”

I was always 50/50 on whether to reblog this but the last comment pushed it to like 95/5 in favor.

“What’s our stop?”

“You’ll get off when I tell you to.”

“How was your ride on the subway? Did everything go smoothly?”

“Uhh.. there were a few kinks along the way.”

Sex tip:

Apr. 24th, 2017 01:22 pm
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muffinsandmatriarchy:

muffinsandmatriarchy:

clarawebbwillcutoffyourhead:

chimaeragray:

espikvlt:

pussysista:

If you enjoy doggystyle but are missing eye contact you can facetime your partner.

Or you can just…. turn your head around.

Has the OP actually DONE doggystyle cus this has literally never been a problem for me.

I…definitely dont have the ability to turn my head that way to make eye contact in that position.

i mean not like an OWL but your partner in th rear can lean over and toward you to make this happen!!!

Cosmo Sex Tip 666: just go full on exorcist on a bitch, nothin hotter than demonic possession

Really Shake Things Up in bed by dislocating all of your joints and crawling away onto the ceiling! Your man will love it

Rocinante

Apr. 24th, 2017 06:09 pm
kayim: (Expanse: Pretty Amos)
[personal profile] kayim posting in [site community profile] dw_community_promo
I swore I didn't want to mod another community, but I couldn't hold out any longer. I needed a place to squee, so please come and join me!


[community profile] rocinante 
For all of your Expanse squee, whether it's about the books, the TV series,
the amazing Belter language, or about the actors themselves.
 

[syndicated profile] redditcars_feed

Posted by /u/AutoModerator

Cars Weekly - What Car Should I Buy Megathread


Any posts pertaining to car buying suggestions or advice should go in this weekly Megathread. A few other subreddits worth checking out that will help your car buying expierance is /r/WhatCarShouldIBuy, /r/UsedCars and /r/AskCarSales. Make/Model specific questions should be asked on Make/Model specific subreddits. Check the AutosNetwork for a complete list of those subreddits. Also check out our community made Ultimate car buying wiki


For those posting,

Please use the following template in your post.

  • Location: (Specify your country or region)

  • Price range: (Minimum-Maximum in your local currency)

  • New or used:

  • Type of vehicle: (Truck, Car, Sports Car, Sedan, Crossover, SUV, Racecar, Luxury etc.)

  • Must haves: (4x4, AWD, Fuel efficient, Navigation, Turbo, V8, V6, Trunk space etc.)

  • Desired transmission (auto/manual, etc):

  • Intended use: (Daily Driver, Family Car, Weekend Car, Track Toy, Project Car, Work Truck, Off roading etc.)

  • Vehicles you've already considered:

  • Is this your 1st vehicle:

  • Does the vehicle need to have a warranty:

  • Can you do Minor work on your own vehicle: (fluids, alternator, battery, water pump, brake pad etc)

  • Can you do Major work on your own vehicle: (engine and transmission rebuild, timing belt/chains, body work etc )

  • Additional Notes:


For those responding and making suggestions,

  • Facts: Are ideal in this thread, especially when trying to help out a new car buyer. Don't just blatantly make stuff up. If /r/cars does one thing right as a community, we call people out on b/s. Have the source ready to backup your statement and reasoning for your suggestions.

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Just One Thing! (24 April 2017)

Apr. 24th, 2017 11:38 am
syntaxofthings: Two white flowers against a blue sky. ([flower] Flower under blue sky)
[personal profile] syntaxofthings posting in [community profile] awesomeers
It's challenge time!

Comment with Just One Thing you've accomplished in the last 24 hours or so. It doesn't have to be a hard thing, or even a thing that you think is particularly awesome. Just a thing that you did.

Feel free to share more than one thing if you're feeling particularly accomplished!

Extra credit: find someone in the comments and give them props for what they achieved!

Nothing is too big, too small, too strange or too cryptic. And in case you'd rather do this in private, anonymous comments are screened. I will only unscreen if you ask me to.

Go!
[syndicated profile] arstechnica_feed

Posted by Jon Brodkin

Enlarge / Verizon FiOS's new top speed and starting price for bundles. (credit: Verizon)

Verizon is now selling what it calls "FiOS Gigabit Connection" for $69.99 a month in a change that boosts top broadband speeds and makes lower prices available to many Internet subscribers.

Actual bandwidth will be a bit lower than a gigabit per second, with "downloads as fast as 940Mbps and uploads as fast as 880Mbps," Verizon's announcement today said. The gigabit service is available in most of Verizon's FiOS territory, specifically to "over 8 million homes in parts of the New York, New Jersey, Philadelphia, Richmond, Va., Hampton Roads, Va., Boston, Providence and Washington, D.C. areas," Verizon said.

Verizon's FiOS territory includes more than 14 million homes, of which about 5.7 million subscribe to Verizon's fiber Internet service. Verizon provided this link for checking gigabit availability.

Read 8 remaining paragraphs | Comments

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Posted by Peter Bright

Enlarge / Intel Optane Memory. Engineering sample, but we hope it's the same as retail hardware.

3D XPoint (pronounced "crosspoint," not "ex-point") is a promising form of non-volatile memory jointly developed by Intel and Micron. Intel claims that the memory, which it's branding Optane for commercial products, provides a compelling mix of properties putting it somewhere between DRAM and NAND flash.

The first Optane products are almost here. For certain enterprise workloads, there's the Intel Optane SSD DC P4800X, a 375GB PCIe card that offers substantially lower latency than comparable flash drives and can boast high numbers of I/O operations per second (IOPS) over a much wider range of workloads than flash. Intel isn't letting reviewers actually use the P4800X, however; the first testing of the hardware, published earlier this week, was performed remotely using hardware on Intel's premises.

For the consumer, there's Intel Optane Memory. It's an M.2 PCIe stick with a capacity of 16GB ($44) or 32GB ($77), and it should be on sale today. Unlike the P4800X, Intel is letting reviewers get hold of Optane Memory, or at least, something close to it: the part we received was branded "engineering sample," with no retail branding or packaging. The astute reader will note that 16 or 32GB isn't a whole lot of storage. Although the sticks can be used as conventional, if tiny, NVMe SSDs, Intel is positioning them as caches for spinning disks. Pair Optane Memory with a large cheap hard disk, and the promise is that you'll get SSD-like performance—some of the time, at least—with HDD-like capacity.

Read 35 remaining paragraphs | Comments

As climates cool, adaptation heats up

Apr. 24th, 2017 03:50 pm
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Posted by Shalini Saxena

Enlarge / Early Man had a sweet mullet. (Photo By DEA PICTURE LIBRARY/De Agostini/Getty Images) (credit: Getty Images / DEA Picture Library)

While natural selection is a big part of evolution, the theory now embraces much more than that. One of the big concepts that explains a lot of the pattern of evolution throughout history is called "adaptive radiation." Adaptive radiation is a process in which environmental changes create new resources, challenges, and environmental niches, enabling rapid diversification of organisms from a single ancestral species.

Adaptive radiation provides a sound explanation that captures the effects of the interactions among organisms on species diversification. However, non-biological effects—the details of how environmental changes interact with species—are not easy to incorporate into this model and have not been extensively explored.

In a recent investigation published in PNAS, a team of scientists developed a method to test how non-biological variables influence the rates of trait evolution within a group of related species. This method was based on a framework that compares evolutionary trajectories, which the scientists validated through intensive simulations.

Read 6 remaining paragraphs | Comments

[syndicated profile] arstechnica_feed

Posted by Eric Berger

Enlarge / Flanked by NASA astronaut Kate Rubins, left, and his daughter, Ivanka Trump, right, President Donald Trump called the International Space Station on Monday. (credit: NASA TV)

Early on Monday morning, NASA's veteran astronaut Peggy Whitson set a US record for cumulative time in space, surpassing Jeff Williams' record of 534 days. To honor her achievement, President Donald Trump called Whitson from the Oval Office, flanked by his daughter, Ivanka Trump, and another NASA astronaut, Kate Rubins.

The conversation was cordial, and President Trump was gracious in congratulating Whitson and asking about her science activities on the space station. After Whitson explained various engineering efforts, including the recycling of urine into water to make for a closed-loop environmental system, Trump replied, "Well that's good, I'm glad to hear that. Better you than me."

During the call, the president also asked about NASA's Journey to Mars and whether any of the astronauts, including Whitson, Rubins, and Jack Fischer, wanted to go to Mars. They all did. "Tell me, for Mars, what do you see a timing for actually sending people to Mars. Is there a schedule, and when do you see that happening?" he then asked.

Read 5 remaining paragraphs | Comments

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Posted by Beth Mole

Enlarge / Mylan Inc. CEO Heather Bresch testifies during a hearing before the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee September 21, 2016 on Capitol Hill in Washington, DC. (credit: Getty | Alex Wong)

Pharmaceutical company Mylan sued West Virginia in 2015 to keep its EpiPens on the state’s “preferred drug list,” which, if successful, would mean that the state’s Medicaid programs would have to automatically pay for the pricey epinephrine auto-injectors.

The bold and unusual move by Mylan—which ultimately failed—is yet another example of the aggressive marketing and legal tactics the company used to boost profits from EpiPens, which halt life-threatening allergic reactions. Since Mylan acquired rights to EpiPen in 2007, the company raised its price by more than 400 percent. Mylan also allegedly made illegal deals with schools to undercut competitors and allegedly scammed federal and state regulators out of millions in rebates by knowingly misclassifying the device.

Last year, EpiPen’s sales and expanded markets brought in more than $1 billion in revenue for Mylan. The company’s CEO, Heather Bresch, is one of the highest-paid CEOs in the industry, earning nearly $19 million annually.

Read 6 remaining paragraphs | Comments

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Posted by /u/All_Under_Heaven

Good afternoon /r/Cars, my 2009 Scion TC recently passed 100,000 miles, and I needed some advice on what special maintenance to get done at this point. I plan to continue driving this car until 2019-2020, and then sell it towards a new vehicle. Some preliminary details:

The only advice I’ve received so far is to have the timing belt checked/replaced. This is what I plan to do so far, in order:

  1. Get timing belt checked.
  2. Replace all four tires.
  3. Replace all brake pads.
  4. Replace all fluids (except oil, just did that at 99k).
  5. Replace windshield.
  6. Replace cracked rear lamp assembly + driver’s rearview mirror.
  7. Replace all four wheels (with new stock versions).
  8. Get a full interior and exterior detail.

And probably right before I sell it:

  • Replace front + rear bumper.
  • Replace driver + passenger door panel.

Just wanted to see if I’m on the right track, if I needed to change/add anything, and get some more experienced opinions on the topic.

Thank you,

A

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Multiple Monday #1: Fronting

Apr. 24th, 2017 12:22 pm
lb_lee: A happy little brain with a bandage on it, surrounded by a circle and the words LB Lee. (Default)
[personal profile] lb_lee
Originally posted at the MultipleMonday LJ comm on Feb. 26th, 2007

1) Do you usually front run alone, in groups, in pairs, or some other way?

2) Is anyone a front hog?

3) Does anyone like to come close to the front and let someone else do the talking?

4) Clothing: Basically the same or does one or more of the front-runners have a separate style?

5) How often do your front-runners change/switch out?

Answer away. Pick one question to answer or go for all 5. It's nice to leave a comment so others can read your answers. You may feel free to answer here if you like.

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